Bitcoin Price Prediction: $78K Support Critical As STH-SOPR Signals
Key Insights:
- Bitcoin drops 7%, testing key $78K support level.
- STH-SOPR remains near mean, with no full capitulation yet.
- Deeper correction is possible if short-term holders start exiting.
Bitcoin fell hard by 7% to test significant support at $78,000 before breaking below the level.
When the market dived deep towards a sharp fall, short-term holders (STH) reacted to that price drop.
The short-termholder spent output profit ratio (STH SOPR) indicator, in particular, shows a unique pattern that hints at further correction.
This is, however, if short-term holders are willing to exit the market.
Bitcoin’s Price Correction and the $78K Support Level
Bitcoin’s price movement has been nothing if not volatile. However, the drop in the leading cryptocurrency was extensive, pushing the initial support level of $80,000 to the breach.
The market was tested by the price afterwards as it tried reaching the critical $78,000 level, which, if held, could have stabilized the market.
With Bitcoin failing to hold the level, trading at $76,486 as of press time, this could mean further declines are coming.
However, many short-term holders (STH) could be in the middle of losses, as the drop below $80,000 caused worry about market stability.
During market turbulence, they generally act too quickly and sell their holdings to reduce such losses.
Values above 1 on the STH-SOPR indicate that short-term holders are making a profit.
On the other hand, values below one indicate they are losing money, which is a key sign of capitulation.
Even in previous major market corrections, such as May, July, and August 2024, STH-SOPR plummeted and fell below the -2 standard deviation band.
Often, those drops were associated with panic selling, triggered by falling prices. This is while short-term holders were desperate to exit positions.
Nevertheless, things are very different today. Even though Bitcoin’s price has fallen over the last two weeks, the STH SOPR indicator has remained close to the mean and sat right around 1.0, which is neutral.
This implies that the Bitcoin price falling so much hasn’t been good enough for short-term holders to appreciate that things have reached nausea just yet.
Meaning that panic selling, as seen during previous corrections, has not reached similar scary levels.
Generally, the market sentiment remains cautious and not completely bearish.
Analyzing the STH-SOPR Chart: What’s Next for BTC?
Bitcoin’s price hasn’t seen the STH-SOPR drop into the lower region, meaning capitulation at full.
It is not yet seeing the selling pressure as it was during earlier corrections, as evidenced by the indicator still fluctuating in the neighbourhood of the 1.0 mark.
While the price has fallen from $80,000, it has not caused widespread panic selling.
Major dates on the STH-SOPR chart coincide with key price levels as the STH-SOPR saw significant changes on those dates.
For example, Bitcoin’s price on May 24, 2024, displayed a similar drop to what is seen today.
The STH–SOPR also dipped then with considerable magnitude, indicating the high selling pressure when it happened.
In July and August of 2024, the STHSOPR followed the same pattern and dropped significantly as short-term holders were liquidating in bulk numbers.
However, with the STH SOPR near the mean and no indication that capitulation is imminent, if this trend reverses, the Bitcoin price could experience further downside.
Any drop in the STH SORP below 1.0, especially when it falls below the -2 standard deviation band, may indicate that more short-term holders are capitulating.
This will likely generate more market weakness.
It is now key for the market structure of Bitcoin at the $78,000 support level.
If the STH SOPR falls sharp, i.e., short-term holders start selling in a higher volume, this could break this price below resistance. Consequently, a sharper drop would follow.
However, if the STH SOPR stays steady or starts to recover, the market may stabilize and maintain the $78,000 level as a basis for recovery.
