Solana ETF Approval Odds: What Does 82% Probability Signal?

Key Insights

• There was 82% chance of a Solana ETF passing by year-end on Polymarket.
• With over 1M users, a DePIN network on Solana chain, Helium, achieved a record.
• Solana’s top dApps continued to control most of the revenue last week.

The odds of approval of a Solana ETF by end of 2025 stayed above the 80th percentile. With the chain seeing high usage, it suggested acceptance calling for more exposure to the SOL token.

Despite the high usage, Solana allegedly experienced continuous manipulation by exchanges and their partners who are the market makers. How does this impact potential Solana ETF…

Odds of a Solana ETF Approval by the End of the Year

The forecast was at 82% likelihood that a Solana ETF would be introduced by December 31, 2025, down from 82%.

Many analysts saw continued interest from institutions, despite recent fluctuations and accusations that Binance used Wintermute to reduce buying.

The amount of betting on Polymarket reflected hope that the SEC would approve a Solana ETF prior to December.

If the Solana ETF succeeds, it would be flooded with investment, which would drive its price up and make it even more appealing to large institutions.

However, if regulators do not quickly approve new features, the initiative could slow down, and the enthusiasm might fade away.

The findings showed several times in April and early May when the index went below 80%, suggesting markets were in doubt.

But the rise above 80% in recent times suggested that confidence was recovering. The fact that the Solana treasury continually buys SOL and there is more ETF speculation provides more evidence for it.

Yet, things would depend on changes in regulation, the general mood about crypto and the ETF market. If the global environment changes fast, we might experience a sudden shift in what investors expect.

Will Solana’s DePIN and Stablecoin Demand Fuel Solana ETF Approval Chances?

The rise in DePIN on the blockchain could fuel the odds of approval of the Solana ETF as it signals adoption that calls for safer investment through ETFs.

With over 1 million users on the 24th of May, a DePIN network on Solana chain, Helium, achieved a record. It reached an all-time high, indicating that demand for decentralized wireless infrastructure was on the rise.

The ecosystem surpassed 99,000 new users in a week. This platform had added more than 99,000 new users within one week.

If things keep improving like they are now, Helium may become the first and largest DePIN network. If users are not staying on the platform, the momentum may slow down over the next weeks.

Circle thus made $250 million in USDC on Solana, bringing the month’s total to $1.5 billion.

Solana’s ability to help stablecoins run smoothly and securely became more trusted. Should minting increase, Solana is more likely to hold a strong position in the stablecoin field.

When USDC demand declines or there is a rise in risks on the bridge, the token would be migrated to other blockchains to be executed.

Because of the influx of users on Helium and USDC growth on Circle, Solana experienced more use for DeFi as well as DePIN. These could fuel the chances of Solana ETF approval as the SEC could see it as a rise in demand.

Solana On-Chain Growth Despite Risk

Solana’s top dApps controlled most of the revenue last week. Pumpdotfun came in first, having brought in more than $10 million, Phantom was next with $4.5 million and Bullx_io ranked third with $2.88 million.

This indicated higher involvement from users. With the current trend, Solana may soon become a major part of the blockchain dApp market.

If fewer people use Ethereum or more compete with it, the whole ecosystem could suffer.

That week, Solana also saw over 320,000 new tokens added to its network. These continued developments in the industry may help resist the risks.

Solana also saw more than $175 million of assets bridged from other networks.

The increase indicated more demand and a growing ability for crypto and conventional assets to work together. Even so, if investors’ opinions changed negatively, funds may leave the market.